Back

#Trump appointed 3 #SCOTUS justices as president. If he wins, he may get more appointments than #KamalaHarris would have.
In recent years, judges have retired in time to let the president they prefer fill their seats. The oldest justices today— #ClarenceThomas, 76, & #Samuel Alito, 74—are #Republican appointees. If they retired during a 2nd Trump admin, he could choose young replacements to cement #conservative control of the court for decades.

#Republicans seem more likely to control the #Senate next year. If they do, they can block #a President #KamalaHarris from filling a vacancy, much as they did Barack #Obama in 2016. “If he were re-elected, he’d probably get to appoint one if not two members to the #UnitedStates #SupremeCourt,” Harris said of #Trump last week. She did not say how many appointees she may get if she wins.

#Harris also wants to enact #TermLimits & an #ethics code for #SCOTUS, given the revelation that Thomas & Alito accepted luxury gifts w/o disclosing them. That’s unlikely if #Republicans control the #Senate — & maybe even if #Democrats do, thanks to the #filibuster.

In the lower #courts, #judges can serve for life. So the more a president appoints, the more he or she can shape the country. #SCOTUS hears only about 80 cases per year, meaning that lower courts are often the final arbiter on many issues. They set #precedent on #criminal #justice, #bankruptcy proceedings, #corporate disputes & #antitrust enforcement, & on whether federal #laws & rules are #constitutional.

In a typical 4-yr term, a president replaces about ¼ of the country’s 870 active federal #judges, across both federal district & appeals courts. #Trump filled 231 vacancies, & President #Biden may equal that number before the next #Congress takes over.

Partly as a result, Republican & Democratic presidents have each appointed about ½ of the judges on federal courts.

The next president will also alter the courts’ #racial, #ideological & #professional makeup. Under #Trump, 76% of judicial nominees were #men, & 84% were #white…. Many had ties to the #FederalistSociety, a *#conservative* #legal group. #Biden’s appointees have been 63% #female & 61% #nonwhite. He has prioritized nominees who served as #PublicDefenders & #CivilRights lawyers, & his picks have tended to be more #liberal than those of past Democratic presidents.

A 2nd-term #Trump might have the edge over a 1st-term #Harris because a #Republican-controlled #Senate could block some of her appointees. Perhaps moderate Harris nominees would get through, though: Most of #Biden’s appointees received bipartisan support. Another potential area of agreement is a bipartisan measure to incrementally increase the total number of federal district #judges to ease rising caseloads. The bill passed the Senate in Aug but has yet to receive a #House vote.

Even as the #election will shape the #judiciary, the judiciary may also shape the election. As in 2020, #Republicans & #Democrats have already asked federal #judges, including those on #SCOTUS, to resolve disputes about ballots before Election Day. Their rulings could determine the outcome of a close race.

Perhaps related, Americans’ faith in the #courts has eroded in the #Trump era.

Unpopular rulings on #elections, #abortion, presidential #immunity, #guns & other issues — as well as the #criminal cases against #Trump, which will likely move forward if he loses — have driven down public #trust in #SCOTUS & the #justice system.

That decline may be hard to reverse no matter which candidate prevails — especially if the courts play a role in deciding the winner.

@Nonilex If Harris has said anything about SCOTUS, I've missed it. Hoping she plans a "January surprise."