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We’ve Been Underestimating the Scale of #Women’s #Fury
By Michelle Goldberg
On Saturday evening I was watching a movie w/my family when a text message made me gasp so hard that it scared them. “What happened?” my husband asked, worried. “Nothing bad,” I said, slightly overcome. “It’s just … #AnnSelzer has #Harris up 3 in #Iowa!”
#HellHathNoFury #RoeRage #misogyny #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensRights #HumanRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/opinion/women-polls-trump-iowa.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XU4.-Vul.T65utkaFMJyp&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
All day, #political nerds had been waiting for the results of #AnnSelzer’s famously accurate poll of #Iowa. The state hasn’t been swingy in a long time, but the #Selzer poll, conducted for The #DesMoinesRegister, can offer clues about broader trends in the electorate. In 2016, when many #Democrats were feeling complacent about a #HillaryClinton victory, her survey showing #Trump leading by 7pts in Iowa was an early indication of his underestimated strength in the Midwest.
(#Trump ended up winning #Iowa by >9 points.) In 2020, her poll again showed Trump ahead by 7pts, which was both close to the final tally &, in retrospect, a sign that #Biden’s margins in neighboring states like #Wisconsin would be much thinner than other polls were indicating.
So many of us were anxious to see how big Trump’s lead would be this time, & the fact that #Selzer instead found him #losing came as a shock.
#women #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024
The poll may easily turn out to be wrong; #Selzer’s record is as good as anyone’s in the business, but it’s not perfect. Should #KamalaHarris win this #election, though, the poll will be part of the story of her victory. The reason for Selzer’s anomalous finding is simple: #women. If it’s anywhere near accurate, it suggests that conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women’s #fury over #abortion bans & their revulsion at #Trump’s cartoonishly macho campaign.
#Selzer’s poll shows independent #women backing #Harris by 28pts, & women 65+ backing her by 2-1. Speaking to Tim Miller of The Bulwark, Selzer speculated about what might have driven these numbers. “It was over the summer that #Iowa’s 6-week ban on #abortion went into effect after all the court challenges were taken care of,” she said. Now, she said, people have been “living with it for a while.”
#law #RoeRage #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024
"The Republican Party has never been pro-life.
Only pro-birth.
As after a child is actually born they disavow all responsibility for it, allowing it to suffer and die in the streets from exposure, malnutrition, and disease.
And then, in the final circular irony, blame the parents for birthing it."
SearingTruth
@SearingTruth @Nonilex Not even pro-birth, just anti-woman. If they were pro-birth they’d support things like pre-natal care.
@Nonilex Yeah for once the timing isn't working out for them, and its very very hard to make the case that your face isn't looking delicious to the leopards
If toxic masculinity ended up strangling the ambition of the most toxic male chauvenist of them all that would be a quite fitting outcome.
@Nonilex Ah. They're finally starting to figure it out, are they?
Good. This is... an acceptable time for them to figure it out, so they can have explanations in their head when MAGA scream fraud and try to overturn the result.
@Nonilex another data point to reflect on that reinforces Selzer's gender findings - TargetSmart's analysis of early voting shows a 9-10pt gender gap in Iowa, nationally and across the swing States.
(1/2)
I had been waiting for this for months.
Never will I understand women voting for Trump that aren't hardcore MAGA|ts and or from the religious right.
Even if they believe that they were financially much better of during #TFG's first and hopefully final presidency, how can you trade that for the ever-present danger of a miscarriage of women among your family and friends from about 12-50?
As....
(2/2)
...The Economist explained in his recent podcast endorsing #Harris, this time, there will not his staffers and the beaucrats reigning in his excesses. Through #Project2025 (e.g. replacing many important beaurocrats with loyalists) and the #SupremeCourt, #Trump will have quasi unfettered powers.
We've all been looking at the wrong #Apprentice:
"Sir, my need is sore.
Spirits that I've cited
My commands ignore."
The Sorcerer's Apprentice/ #Goethe
//
@Nonilex Every single time we've gone to the polls since Dobbs like clockwork I see the media go 'soooooo Dobbs stops being a thing *now*, right? This is when women get over it?'
And the answer keeps being no.
@Nonilex Allan Lichtmann has Harris as a winner, and he is usually right.